The surveys conducted by Ann Selzer in Iowa are renowned for their accuracy. In addition, several professionals and political fans eagerly awaited their first barometer of the season in this rural Midwestern state where the first vote in the race for the White House will take place in 2024. Note: Donald Trump’s rivals they won’t really think of beating him up if neither of them can trip him up in the Iowa caucuses.
Ann Selzer’s poll, conducted for NBC News and the Registration in Des Moines, was finally released on Monday. Contains good news and bad news for Trump opponents. Let’s start with the bad: The former president enjoys the largest lead in a poll conducted by Selzer in Iowa since 2000 among Republican presidential candidates. This is a smaller lead than the former Trump enjoys in national polls, but still a sizeable one:
Another bad news for Trump’s rivals: 65% of Republican voters in this state believe that the former president did not commit any of the crimes with which he is accused, compared to 26% who think otherwise and 12% who do not know . And the accusation of him in Georgia did not hurt him. In fact, the poll shows that Trump’s lead over DeSantis increased after that impeachment, which came on Aug. 14. According to interviews conducted on August 13 and 14, Trump’s lead over DeSantis was 18 percentage points, or 38% to 20%. But his lead rose to 25 points in post-indictment interviews, or 43% to 18%.
Among the good news, at least for Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott: the governor of Florida is viewed favorably by 66% of Republican voters compared to 65% for Trump and 59% for Tim Scott. This capital of sympathy could allow DeSantis or Scott to create an upset if the tide turns against Trump by the January 15th, the date of the Iowa caucuses.
Also, unlike Ted Cruz, who won the 2016 Iowa caucuses by courting the evangelical vote, DeSantis and Scott enjoy some popularity in New Hampshire, where the first Republican primary will be held. If he wins the caucuses, DeSantis and Scott might not hit a wall in Granite State like other candidates popular among Iowa evangelicals have: Cruz, Santorum and Huckabee, among others.
A final comment from Ann Selzer: “I’ve been doing this for a long time. We had candidates who started very low (in the polls) and ended up winning. Anyone can come to Iowa and win. Any. »
(Fox Business Photo)
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Categories: Politics, United States•Tags: Ann Selzer, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott•
